Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Snap-on (SNA) Position Trimmed by American Century Companies Inc.

American Century Companies Inc. reduced its position in Snap-on (NYSE:SNA) by 93.6% during the first quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 17,330 shares of the company’s stock after selling 253,734 shares during the quarter. American Century Companies Inc.’s holdings in Snap-on were worth $2,557,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. First Trust Advisors LP grew its stake in Snap-on by 147.6% in the 4th quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 433,341 shares of the company’s stock worth $75,531,000 after acquiring an additional 258,310 shares in the last quarter. Elkfork Partners LLC bought a new position in Snap-on in the 4th quarter worth about $36,979,000. Fenimore Asset Management Inc. grew its stake in Snap-on by 221.5% in the 4th quarter. Fenimore Asset Management Inc. now owns 220,331 shares of the company’s stock worth $38,404,000 after acquiring an additional 151,797 shares in the last quarter. Dearborn Partners LLC grew its stake in Snap-on by 2,788.0% in the 1st quarter. Dearborn Partners LLC now owns 132,155 shares of the company’s stock worth $19,498,000 after acquiring an additional 127,579 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Teacher Retirement System of Texas grew its stake in Snap-on by 2,817.0% in the 4th quarter. Teacher Retirement System of Texas now owns 127,792 shares of the company’s stock worth $22,274,000 after acquiring an additional 123,411 shares in the last quarter. 99.40% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

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NYSE SNA opened at $151.23 on Monday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31, a quick ratio of 1.57 and a current ratio of 2.28. Snap-on has a 52-week low of $140.83 and a 52-week high of $185.47. The company has a market cap of $8.56 billion, a PE ratio of 14.94, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.26 and a beta of 1.16.

Snap-on (NYSE:SNA) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, April 19th. The company reported $2.79 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $2.73 by $0.06. Snap-on had a net margin of 15.50% and a return on equity of 20.63%. The firm had revenue of $935.50 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $926.52 million. During the same period last year, the firm earned $2.39 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 5.5% on a year-over-year basis. equities analysts predict that Snap-on will post 11.64 earnings per share for the current year.

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, June 8th. Stockholders of record on Monday, May 21st will be paid a dividend of $0.82 per share. The ex-dividend date is Friday, May 18th. This represents a $3.28 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 2.17%. Snap-on’s dividend payout ratio is presently 32.41%.

SNA has been the topic of a number of research analyst reports. Barrington Research restated a “buy” rating on shares of Snap-on in a research note on Thursday, March 8th. ValuEngine downgraded shares of Snap-on from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Wednesday, May 2nd. Robert W. Baird restated a “buy” rating and issued a $210.00 target price on shares of Snap-on in a research note on Friday, April 20th. Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares of Snap-on from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $178.00 target price on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, February 14th. Finally, B. Riley set a $205.00 target price on shares of Snap-on and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Monday, March 12th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, three have given a hold rating and six have given a buy rating to the stock. The company presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $189.13.

Snap-on Company Profile

Snap-on Incorporated manufactures and markets tools, equipment, diagnostics, and repair information and systems solutions for professional users worldwide. The company operates through Commercial & Industrial Group, Snap-on Tools Group, Repair Systems & Information Group, and Financial Services segments.

Institutional Ownership by Quarter for Snap-on (NYSE:SNA)

Sunday, May 27, 2018

KeyCorp (KEY) Shares Sold by Teacher Retirement System of Texas

Teacher Retirement System of Texas lessened its position in KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) by 19.2% during the 1st quarter, HoldingsChannel.com reports. The institutional investor owned 237,965 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 56,681 shares during the quarter. Teacher Retirement System of Texas’ holdings in KeyCorp were worth $4,652,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

Several other hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of KEY. Boston Partners raised its holdings in shares of KeyCorp by 37.6% in the 4th quarter. Boston Partners now owns 26,045,044 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $525,329,000 after buying an additional 7,123,113 shares during the period. Eaton Vance Management raised its holdings in shares of KeyCorp by 77.6% in the 4th quarter. Eaton Vance Management now owns 11,100,824 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $223,904,000 after buying an additional 4,850,008 shares during the period. Two Sigma Investments LP raised its holdings in shares of KeyCorp by 24,671.7% in the 4th quarter. Two Sigma Investments LP now owns 2,948,598 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $59,473,000 after buying an additional 2,960,598 shares during the period. Renaissance Technologies LLC purchased a new stake in shares of KeyCorp in the 4th quarter valued at $49,676,000. Finally, Thrivent Financial for Lutherans raised its holdings in shares of KeyCorp by 38.0% in the 1st quarter. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans now owns 8,108,123 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $158,514,000 after buying an additional 2,231,623 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 80.06% of the company’s stock.

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KEY has been the topic of several research analyst reports. Zacks Investment Research downgraded KeyCorp from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, February 13th. ValuEngine downgraded KeyCorp from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Monday, April 2nd. Morgan Stanley boosted their price objective on KeyCorp from $24.50 to $25.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Tuesday, April 24th. Vining Sparks reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $25.00 price objective on shares of KeyCorp in a report on Friday, April 6th. Finally, Susquehanna Bancshares upgraded KeyCorp from a “neutral” rating to a “positive” rating and boosted their price objective for the company from $24.00 to $25.00 in a report on Tuesday, April 24th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, seven have assigned a hold rating and fifteen have assigned a buy rating to the company. The company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $22.45.

In other news, insider Edward J. Burke sold 10,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, May 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $19.83, for a total transaction of $198,300.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now directly owns 126,526 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,509,010.58. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Corporate insiders own 0.65% of the company’s stock.

Shares of KeyCorp opened at $20.04 on Friday, according to MarketBeat.com. The company has a current ratio of 0.89, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.99. KeyCorp has a 1-year low of $16.28 and a 1-year high of $22.40. The stock has a market cap of $21.70 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.29, a P/E/G ratio of 1.27 and a beta of 1.05.

KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 19th. The financial services provider reported $0.38 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the Thomson Reuters’ consensus estimate of $0.38. KeyCorp had a return on equity of 11.03% and a net margin of 19.32%. The company had revenue of $1.55 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.56 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.32 EPS. KeyCorp’s revenue was up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. research analysts expect that KeyCorp will post 1.7 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, June 15th. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, May 29th will be given a dividend of $0.12 per share. This is a boost from KeyCorp’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.11. This represents a $0.48 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.40%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, May 25th. KeyCorp’s dividend payout ratio is currently 30.88%.

KeyCorp Profile

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking services in the United States. The company's Key Community Bank segment offers various deposit and investment products, personal finance services, residential mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards, and installment loans, as well as personal property and casualty insurance, such as home, auto, renters, watercraft, and umbrella insurance for individuals.

Want to see what other hedge funds are holding KEY? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY).

Institutional Ownership by Quarter for KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY)

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Reviewing Argo Group (AGII) and Stewart Information Services (STC)

Argo Group (NASDAQ: AGII) and Stewart Information Services (NYSE:STC) are both small-cap finance companies, but which is the better business? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their valuation, risk, earnings, dividends, institutional ownership, profitability and analyst recommendations.

Volatility and Risk

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Argo Group has a beta of 0.62, meaning that its share price is 38% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Stewart Information Services has a beta of 0.88, meaning that its share price is 12% less volatile than the S&P 500.

Institutional & Insider Ownership

80.7% of Argo Group shares are owned by institutional investors. Comparatively, 86.4% of Stewart Information Services shares are owned by institutional investors. 5.2% of Argo Group shares are owned by company insiders. Comparatively, 2.3% of Stewart Information Services shares are owned by company insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that endowments, large money managers and hedge funds believe a company is poised for long-term growth.

Earnings and Valuation

This table compares Argo Group and Stewart Information Services’ revenue, earnings per share and valuation.

Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio
Argo Group $1.77 billion 1.12 $50.30 million ($0.42) -140.12
Stewart Information Services $1.96 billion 0.52 $48.65 million $2.17 19.91

Argo Group has higher earnings, but lower revenue than Stewart Information Services. Argo Group is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than Stewart Information Services, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.

Dividends

Argo Group pays an annual dividend of $1.08 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.8%. Stewart Information Services pays an annual dividend of $1.20 per share and has a dividend yield of 2.8%. Argo Group pays out -257.1% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Stewart Information Services pays out 55.3% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Both companies have healthy payout ratios and should be able to cover their dividend payments with earnings for the next several years.

Profitability

This table compares Argo Group and Stewart Information Services’ net margins, return on equity and return on assets.

Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets
Argo Group 2.15% -0.01% N/A
Stewart Information Services 2.09% 7.01% 3.40%

Analyst Ratings

This is a summary of current ratings and price targets for Argo Group and Stewart Information Services, as provided by MarketBeat.

Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score
Argo Group 0 0 1 0 3.00
Stewart Information Services 0 1 0 0 2.00

Argo Group presently has a consensus price target of $62.00, indicating a potential upside of 5.35%. Stewart Information Services has a consensus price target of $46.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.46%. Given Stewart Information Services’ higher probable upside, analysts clearly believe Stewart Information Services is more favorable than Argo Group.

Summary

Stewart Information Services beats Argo Group on 9 of the 16 factors compared between the two stocks.

About Argo Group

Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. underwrites specialty insurance and reinsurance products in the property and casualty markets. The company operates in two segments, U.S. Operations and International Operations. The U.S. Operations segment underwrites primary and excess specialty casualty, and commercial multi-peril, as well as contract, product, environmental, and auto liability products; and workers compensation, general, management, errors and omissions, and public entity liability risks. This segment distributes its products through a network of wholesale agents and brokers. Its International Operations segment offers coverage for long-tail casualty and general liability; catastrophe reinsurance, and direct and facultative excess reinsurance; professional indemnity, directors and officer's liability, and medical malpractice; and direct and facultative excess reinsurance, North American and international binders, and residential collateral protection for lending institutions. This segment also underwrites risks of general liability, international casualty, and motor treaties; and personal accident, aviation, cargo, yachts, and onshore and offshore marine insurance. It sells its reinsurance products through brokers and third-party intermediaries. Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

About Stewart Information Services

Stewart Information Services Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides title insurance and real estate transaction services. The company operates in two segments, Title Insurance and Related Services, and Ancillary Services and Corporate. The Title Insurance and Related Services segment is involved in searching, examining, closing, and insuring the condition of the title to real property. This segment also offers centralized title services, including title and closing, post-closing, default, and REO-related title services; home and personal insurance services; and services for tax-deferred exchanges. The Ancillary Services and Corporate segment primarily provides search, appraisal, and valuation services to the mortgage industry. The company serves homebuyers and sellers, residential and commercial real estate professionals, mortgage lenders and servicers, title agencies and real estate attorneys, home builders, and mortgage brokers and investors. It operates in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Central Europe, and internationally. Stewart Information Services Corporation was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Top Small Cap Stocks To Invest In Right Now

tags:CNR,FCEL,ACHN,PQ,

Small cap restaurant stock Potbelly Corp (NASDAQ: PBPB) reported�Q2 2017 earnings before the market opened on Friday with the bottom line missing expectations. Total revenues increased 3.0% to $108.1 million as company-operated comparable store sales decreased 4.9%. Sixteen new shops opened, including three franchised shops and thirteen company-operated shops. The GAAP net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $0.1 million versus�net income of $3.4 million (inclusive of a $1.0 million impairment charge). The CFO/interim-CEO commented:

"During the second quarter, we generated revenue of $108 million, an increase of 3%, driven by our new unit growth, offset by the impact of our comparable store sales, which decreased 4.9%. While disappointed with our top-line performance, we are encouraged by our ability to manage costs, drive solid flow-through delivering shop-level profit margin of 19.2%, and generate adjusted EBITDA of $11.8 million."

Top Small Cap Stocks To Invest In Right Now: China Metro-Rural Holdings Limited(CNR)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Wall Street analysts expect that Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) (TSE:CNR) will announce $1.02 earnings per share (EPS) for the current quarter, according to Zacks Investment Research. Seven analysts have provided estimates for Canadian National Railway’s earnings, with the highest EPS estimate coming in at $1.06 and the lowest estimate coming in at $0.97. Canadian National Railway reported earnings per share of $1.00 in the same quarter last year, which would suggest a positive year over year growth rate of 2%. The company is expected to announce its next quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, July 24th.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) (TSE:CNR) – Cormark raised their Q3 2018 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Canadian National Railway in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday, April 10th. Cormark analyst D. Tyerman now expects that the transportation company will post earnings per share of $1.15 for the quarter, up from their previous estimate of $1.14.

Top Small Cap Stocks To Invest In Right Now: FuelCell Energy Inc.(FCEL)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Peter Graham]

    Small cap fuel cell stock�FuelCell Energy Inc (NASDAQ: FCEL) reported Q4 and fiscal year ended October 31, 2017 earnings�with�Q4 total revenues�being $47.9 million versus $24.5 million:����

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) posted an increase of 17.8% in short interest during the period. Some 6.9 million shares were short as of May 15. The stock closed at $1.88 on Thursday, down about 1.1% for the day, in a 52-week range of $0.93 to $2.49. Shares traded up about 1.4% in the short interest period, and days to cover rose from eight to 14.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ: FCEL) is one of 25 public companies in the “Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment, & supplies” industry, but how does it contrast to its peers? We will compare FuelCell Energy to related companies based on the strength of its risk, dividends, earnings, valuation, profitability, analyst recommendations and institutional ownership.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ: FCEL) and HRG Group (NYSE:HRG) are both oils/energy companies, but which is the superior business? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their dividends, valuation, risk, analyst recommendations, institutional ownership, earnings and profitability.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) posted a decrease of 25.7% in short interest during the period. Some 5.86 million shares were short as of April 30. The stock closed at $1.93 on Wednesday, up about 1.6% for the day, in a 52-week range of $0.80 to $2.49. Shares traded down about 7.8% in the short interest period, and days to cover rose from six to eight.

Top Small Cap Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc.(ACHN)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Achillion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACHN) – Research analysts at B. Riley reduced their FY2018 EPS estimates for shares of Achillion Pharmaceuticals in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday, May 2nd. B. Riley analyst M. Kumar now anticipates that the biopharmaceutical company will earn ($0.58) per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of ($0.55). B. Riley has a “Neutral” rating and a $3.50 price objective on the stock. B. Riley also issued estimates for Achillion Pharmaceuticals’ FY2019 earnings at ($0.64) EPS, FY2020 earnings at ($0.71) EPS, FY2021 earnings at ($0.70) EPS and FY2022 earnings at ($0.84) EPS.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Lisa Levin] Gainers Avenue Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATXI) rose 29.4 percent to $5.50 in pre-market trading after the company disclosed that its first pivotal Phase 3 trial of IV tramadol achieved the primary and key secondary endpoints. MB Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: MBFI) rose 16.8 percent to $51.00 in pre-market trading. Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) agreed to acquire MB Financial for $54.70 per share in cash and stock. LiveXLive Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: LIVX) rose 9.3 percent to $5.40 in pre-market trading after falling 28.92 percent on Friday. Celyad SA (NASDAQ: CYAD) shares rose 9 percent to $29.30 in pre-market trading after climbing 3.26 percent on Friday. Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (NYSE: ETH) rose 6.7 percent to $26.40 in pre-market trading after gaining 1.64 percent on Friday. Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHN) rose 5.4 percent to $3.90 in pre-market trading after gaining 3.06 percent on Friday. Acacia Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACIA) rose 5.2 percent to $34.70 in pre-market trading after gaining 1.38 percent on Friday. Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (NYSE: WAB) rose 5.1 percent to $100 in pre-market trading. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) agreed to merge its transportation unit with Wabtec. Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) shares rose 4.7 percent to $11.50 in pre-market trading. Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) shares rose 4.3 percent to $93.98 in the pre-market trading session. LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO) shares rose 4.2 percent to $33.25 in pre-market trading. Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) will buy LaSalle Hotel Properties in a $4.8 billion deal, Bloomberg reported. Monro, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNRO) shares rose 4 percent to $58.35 in pre-market trading as the company posted upbeat quarterly earnings and disclosed that it has acquired Free Service Tire. HUYA Inc. (NYSE: HUYA) rose 3.7 percent to $19.75 in pre-market trading after falling 4.80 percent on Friday.

    Find out what's going

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Achillion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACHN) has been given an average recommendation of “Hold” by the nine brokerages that are currently covering the firm, MarketBeat reports. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, four have issued a hold rating and three have issued a buy rating on the company. The average 12 month price target among analysts that have covered the stock in the last year is $5.20.

Top Small Cap Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Petroquest Energy Inc(PQ)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    News headlines about Petroquest Energy (NYSE:PQ) have been trending somewhat positive recently, Accern Sentiment Analysis reports. Accern identifies negative and positive news coverage by reviewing more than 20 million blog and news sources. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of -1 to 1, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Petroquest Energy earned a coverage optimism score of 0.05 on Accern’s scale. Accern also gave news stories about the energy company an impact score of 47.638327846877 out of 100, meaning that recent news coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an impact on the company’s share price in the near future.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Gilead: Novartis's Kymriah Is Coming To America

From the movie "Coming To America." Source: Amazon.com

Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) acquired Kite Pharma for $12 billion, and the novel CAR-T therapy received FDA approval within months. For a while, it seemed like Gilead would have the U.S. CAR-T market all to itself. However, Novartis's (NYSE:NVS) Kymriah was recently approved by the FDA to treat large B-cell lymphoma:

U.S. regulators approved Novartis�� cell therapy Kymriah for treatment of patients with a second type of blood cancer, large B-cell lymphoma, that has worsened despite two or more earlier lines of therapy, the Swiss drugmaker said on Tuesday.

The new indication puts Kymriah in direct competition with Gilead Sciences�� Yescarta, which was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in October for treatment of adults with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma who have failed to respond to other treatments.

Both Kymriah and Yescarta are chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies, or CAR-Ts, which reprogram the body��s own immune cells to recognize and attack malignant cells.

Kymriah, given as a one-time treatment, was approved in August for patients up to age 25 with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, the most common form of childhood cancer in the United States.

Kymriah could stymie sales of Yescarta, one of the few remaining catalysts Gilead possesses. Below, I will parse through the implications of Kymriah's U.S. arrival.

The Situation

The Kite Pharma acquisition received a lot of fanfare from GILD bulls. When the deal was completed in August 2017, Kite's revenue was expected to be approximately $200 million in 2018 and to grow to about $1.2 billion by 2021. Yescarta's $1.2 billion of peak annual revenue paled in comparison to Gilead's HCV revenue, which was generating $2.9 billion per quarter. I thought Gilead's prospects were still dim amid its shrinking HCV franchise.

Yescarta is expected to be available for critically care cancer patients for whom other treatments may not have worked. In some respects, Yescarta could be their last option. In Q4 2017, Cowen estimated about 5,300 patients would be good candidates for Yescarta annually. However, given the need for Gilead to roll out commercial centers capable of treating patients, only about 1,200 patients were likely to be treated by Yescarta this year.

Another potential bottleneck could be the cost of in-hospital stays versus outpatient treatment, and how much of the tab Medicare will pick up. We need more clarity from Gilead's management on these issues given their complexities.

Kymriah Could Stymie Yescarta Sales

In Q1 2018, Yescarta delivered in spades with revenue of $40 million. Management intimated there was an increase in patient enrollment, and that the company was "on track to have enough centers certified to treat 80% of Yescarta-eligible patients in the United States by the middle of the year." If that means Gilead will have the capacity to treat 4,000 patients per year, then it could equate to annual revenue of about $1.5 billion. This would exceed the $884 million in HCV revenue the company generated in Q1.

However, it may have to share that $1.5 billion revenue potential with Novartis. Kymriah generated $12 million in revenue in Q1 2018. I understand that (1) the treatment is priced at $475,000 for pediatric leukemia patients, and (2) Novartis bills for Kymriah only if patients respond within 30 days of treatment. Pursuant to lymphoma patients, Novartis is expected to match Yescarta's $373,000 price point with no outcome-based concessions.

In effect, the two treatments will go head-to-head at the same price point. Yescarta's Q1 revenue puts it on an annual run rate of $160 million. It could exceed its current trajectory, yet may have to share a large part of an annual $1.5 billion market with Kymriah.

Will Biktarvy Step Up?

Gilead's Q1 2018 total revenue of $5 billion down 14% sequentially. HCV sales fell 33% due to an onslaught from AbbVie's (NYSE:ABBV) Mavyret. AbbVie's total HCV revenue grew 80% sequentially in Q1, and that likely came out of Gilead's hide. Even more shocking was that Gilead's non-HCV revenue fell 10% Q/Q, and that included the $40 million contribution from Yescarta.

The company's latest HIV treatment, Biktarvy, could change that. The single-tablet regimen received FDA approval only in February 2018, yet still managed to generate $35 million in revenue during the quarter. Biktarvy is expected to compete head-to-head with GlaxoSmithKline's (NYSE:GSK) two-drug HIV combo. The lion's share of Biktarvy sales came from Genvoya switches and certain HIV drugs from GSK. That said, Biktarvy and Yescarta will likely drive the narrative in Q2.

Conclusion

Yescarta and Biktarvy will grow, but can they replace HCV's huge margins? GILD is up 6% Y/Y, but until the company can put its $32 billion cash hoard to work, the stock remains a Sell.

Disclosure: I am/we are short GILD.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Can Vipshop Rebound From Its Post-Earnings Plunge?

Shares of Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) tumbled nearly 20% on May 15 after the Chinese e-tailer reported its�first-quarter numbers. Its revenue rose 25% annually to 19.9 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), beating estimates by $120 million, but its non-GAAP net income dropped 9% to 728 million yuan ($116 million), or 1.05 yuan ($0.17) per ADS,�missing expectations by a penny. But did Vipshop deserve to decline that much in a single day?

What does Vipshop do?

Vipshop controlled about 3% of China's business-to-consumer (B2C) market last year, according to Analysys International Enfodesk, putting it a distant third behind Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Tmall and JD.com (NASDAQ:JD). However, Vipshop carved out a defensible niche with flash sales -- which helped it survive as its smaller rivals died out.

Three women shop online.

Image source: Getty Images.

Last December, Tencent (NASDAQOTH:TCEHY) and JD co-invested $863 million in Vipshop. That investment -- which gave Tencent a 7% stake and boosted JD's existing stake from 2.5% to 5.5% -- was a strong vote of confidence for the underdog retailer.

The move integrated Vipshop's marketplace with Tencent's WeChat, the top mobile messaging app in China, and allowed Vipshop and JD to share their marketplace resources and forge strategic alliances with brand suppliers. In theory, those moves could help all three companies counter Alibaba.

What went right for Vipshop in the first quarter

Vipshop's 25% year-over-year sales growth during the quarter was supported by robust growth in active customers and higher spending per customer. Its active customers over the past 12 months rose 2% annually to 56.6 million. Its total orders climbed 25% to 90.2 million for the quarter, which also lifted its average revenue per customer by 25%.

A "buy" button on a keyboard next to a button with a Chinese flag.

Image source: Getty Images.

Also, 86% of Vipshop's customers were repeat customers, up from 77% a year ago. And 96% of all its orders were placed by repeat customers, up from 92% a year earlier. Vipshop also enrolled 1.5 million customers into its Super VIP paid membership program, which represents 54% growth from the fourth quarter.

Vipshop's logistics network is also improving. It delivered about 99% of its orders via its in-house last-mile delivery network during the quarter, compared to 93% a year earlier. That service also handled 81% of customer returns, up from 67% a year ago. It also added a warehouse in Frankfurt, Germany, to expand its overseas network -- which also includes warehouses in Hong Kong, New York, Paris, Milan, London, Seoul, Tokyo, and Sydney.

Vipshop also tightened its bonds with JD and Tencent during the quarter. In March, it launched its co-branded JD flagship store, which attracted "approximately half a million followers within the first two months," the company said in its first-quarter press release. In April, it integrated a "mini-program" store into WeChat's platform -- which has about one billion monthly active users -- and launched special promotions for WeChat Wallet.

What went wrong for Vipshop

But for the current quarter, Vipshop expects just 17% to 22% annual sales growth -- which would represent its slowest ever growth rate. That's a disappointing figure for investors who had expected its partnerships with Tencent and JD to boost its long-term sales.

Meanwhile, Vipshop's bottom-line miss was partly caused by a decline in its gross margin, which dropped three percentage points annually to 20.2%. The reclassification of third-party logistic costs from fulfillment expenses to cost of revenues reduced its gross margin by 0.9%, while the rest of its decline can be attributed to pricing pressures across the e-commerce market.

Vipshop's operating expenses also rose 13% annually -- as higher fulfillment, technology & content, and general & administrative expenses offset a 12% reduction in its marketing expenses. As a result, Vipshop's free cash flow dropped from $429 million a year earlier to negative $217 million for the first quarter. Its cash and equivalents also fell from 9.97 billion yuan at the end of 2017 to 7.01 billion yuan ($1.12 billion).

Those numbers indicate that like its partner JD, which also recently disappointed investors with a bottom-line miss, Vipshop is spending money on the expansion of its digital ecosystem and logistics network to generate higher growth in the future. However, Vipshop's smaller size leaves it more vulnerable to competitors than JD -- which controls about a third of China's B2C market.

The bottom line

Vipshop's earnings miss was disappointing, but the stock arguably overheated after Tencent and JD's investment last year -- soaring from about $8 to nearly $19 in just over two months.

But after its post-earnings sell-off, Vipshop trades at just 14 times this year's earnings. That's a reasonable valuation compared to analysts' estimates for�26% sales growth and 12% earnings growth this year. However, I personally wouldn't rush in to buy Vipshop -- since Tencent and JD are clearly more stable long-term plays.

Monday, May 21, 2018

KBC Group NV Purchases 15,628 Shares of Medtronic PLC (MDT)

KBC Group NV boosted its position in Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT) by 2.4% in the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 655,442 shares of the medical technology company’s stock after purchasing an additional 15,628 shares during the period. KBC Group NV’s holdings in Medtronic were worth $52,580,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

Other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of the company. We Are One Seven LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Medtronic in the fourth quarter valued at about $104,000. BB&T Investment Services Inc. increased its stake in shares of Medtronic by 147.6% in the fourth quarter. BB&T Investment Services Inc. now owns 1,518 shares of the medical technology company’s stock valued at $126,000 after buying an additional 905 shares during the period. Barrett Asset Management LLC increased its stake in shares of Medtronic by 856.0% in the fourth quarter. Barrett Asset Management LLC now owns 1,826 shares of the medical technology company’s stock valued at $147,000 after buying an additional 1,635 shares during the period. Proficio Capital Partners LLC increased its stake in shares of Medtronic by 51.2% in the fourth quarter. Proficio Capital Partners LLC now owns 2,201 shares of the medical technology company’s stock valued at $178,000 after buying an additional 745 shares during the period. Finally, Bedel Financial Consulting Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Medtronic in the first quarter valued at about $193,000. 80.37% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

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MDT has been the subject of several recent research reports. Citigroup reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $93.00 price target (down previously from $100.00) on shares of Medtronic in a research note on Thursday, February 22nd. Royal Bank of Canada reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and set a $92.00 target price on shares of Medtronic in a research note on Wednesday, February 14th. Oppenheimer reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of Medtronic in a research note on Tuesday, March 20th. Piper Jaffray Companies started coverage on Medtronic in a research note on Friday, April 27th. They set an “overweight” rating and a $90.00 target price for the company. Finally, Morgan Stanley decreased their target price on Medtronic from $95.00 to $90.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, March 29th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, six have issued a hold rating and seventeen have issued a buy rating to the stock. The company currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $91.39.

Shares of Medtronic opened at $84.64 on Monday, MarketBeat reports. The company has a market capitalization of $114.72 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.05, a PEG ratio of 2.32 and a beta of 0.94. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, a quick ratio of 2.09 and a current ratio of 2.43. Medtronic PLC has a 52-week low of $76.41 and a 52-week high of $89.72.

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, February 20th. The medical technology company reported $1.17 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.16 by $0.01. The business had revenue of $7.37 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $7.20 billion. Medtronic had a return on equity of 12.65% and a net margin of 9.44%. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 1.2% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned $1.12 earnings per share. equities research analysts anticipate that Medtronic PLC will post 4.74 earnings per share for the current year.

In other Medtronic news, Director James T. Lenehan sold 1,306 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, March 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $83.56, for a total value of $109,129.36. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, SVP Carol A. Surface sold 24,479 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, March 5th. The stock was sold at an average price of $78.18, for a total value of $1,913,768.22. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. 0.31% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Medtronic Company Profile

Medtronic plc manufactures and sells device-based medical therapies to hospitals, physicians, clinicians, and patients worldwide. The company's Cardiac and Vascular Group segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; diagnostics and monitoring devices; mechanical circulatory support, TYRX, and AF products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software.

Institutional Ownership by Quarter for Medtronic (NYSE:MDT)